India to be Fastest Growing G20 Economy Until 2027, Says Moody’s

Rating agency Moody’s projects India will grow at 6.5% annually to 2027 and lead the G20 in growth, despite global headwinds including U.S. tariffs.

Pune, 13 November 2025 – India is set to remain the fastest-growing economy among all G20 nations through 2027, according to Moody’s latest Global Macro Outlook. The agency projects India’s average growth at around 6.5 percent over the next two years, driven mainly by strong domestic demand, steady infrastructure spending and a policy environment that continues to support economic expansion. Despite global uncertainty, Moody’s notes that India’s economic momentum remains resilient and more stable than most major economies.

The report highlights that India has managed to withstand external shocks, including the recent 50 percent tariff imposed by the United States on select Indian exports. Instead of slowing down, exports in September rose by nearly 6.75 percent. Moody’s attributes this to India’s ability to pivot quickly to new markets and diversify trade routes, reducing dependence on any one country. The agency also points to strong capital inflows, growing liquidity, and healthy consumption patterns as major pillars supporting India’s position.

While private sector investment has not fully recovered to its earlier pace, Moody’s believes the long-term potential remains intact. Large public investments in infrastructure continue to strengthen the foundation for future private-sector participation. At the same time, India’s inflation management and monetary stability have given businesses and consumers more confidence. This overall environment, the report suggests, is what keeps India ahead of its global peers.

In comparison, China’s growth is likely to slow to near 4.2 percent by 2027. Moody’s cites weakening domestic demand and slower investment activity as factors that will limit China’s performance over the next two years. The contrast marks a clear shift in global economic momentum, with India emerging as a central driver of growth among major economies.

Moody’s does caution that India still faces risks. Global financial pressure, geopolitical developments, or a sharp rise in commodity prices could affect the outlook. The agency also notes that private sector investment needs to accelerate for growth to sustain beyond 2027. Even so, India’s ability to absorb shocks and maintain stability places it in a stronger position compared to other G20 countries.

For policymakers, the outlook offers both validation and a reminder. The country’s economic direction is strong, but continued reforms in manufacturing, trade diversification, infrastructure and employment generation will be essential. For global investors, the report reinforces India’s role as an important destination in the evolving world economy.

India now stands at a point where domestic strength and international opportunity intersect. Moody’s assessment signals confidence not just in India’s short-term recovery but also in its long-term capacity to shape global economic growth.

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