India Likely to See 6% Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall, Skymet Forecasts Amid El Niño Concerns

India may receive below-average rainfall this monsoon season, with private forecaster Skymet predicting a 6% deficit due to El Niño conditions potentially disrupting cloud formation and rainfall patterns.

April 8, 2026 | Kolhapur : India is likely to witness a below-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall expected to be around 6 percent lower than the long-term average, according to the first forecast issued by Skymet Weather. The projection attributes the anticipated shortfall to the impact of El Niño conditions over the Indian Ocean, which could hinder cloud formation during the crucial monsoon months. As per the forecast, rainfall between June and September is expected to be about 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), translating to nearly 817 mm of precipitation across the country. The agency has indicated a margin of error of 5 percent in its estimate, reflecting the inherent variability of monsoon systems.

The report also highlights a 30 percent probability of drought-like conditions and a 40 percent likelihood of below-normal rainfall across various regions. While the monsoon’s arrival over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands is still over a month away, early projections such as this are closely monitored for agricultural planning and policy decisions. Month-wise trends suggest a mixed pattern. June rainfall is expected to slightly exceed normal levels at 101 percent of LPA, offering a positive start to the season. However, July may see rainfall drop to 95 percent, followed by further declines in August and September, with precipitation projected at 92 percent and 89 percent of LPA respectively.

The India Meteorological Department has also pointed to fluctuating weather conditions in recent weeks, including scattered rainfall in April, indicating an unstable atmospheric pattern. Although a 6 percent deficit is not expected to significantly impact the broader economy, experts caution that erratic rainfall distribution could pose challenges. A sharper decline in precipitation may affect agricultural output, potentially adding strain to an economy already facing global uncertainties.

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