Exit Polls Predict BJP Surge in West Bengal, Power Shift Likely in Kerala

Exit poll projections suggest the BJP may unseat Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal after 15 years, while Kerala is expected to witness a change in government. DMK is projected to retain power in Tamil Nadu.

April 30, 2026 | Pune: Exit poll predictions for the 2026 Assembly elections have indicated major political shifts across several states, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) projected to make significant gains in West Bengal and retain its position in Assam and Puducherry. Meanwhile, Kerala is expected to see a change in government, while Tamil Nadu is likely to return the DMK alliance to power.

According to four out of five post-poll surveys, West Bengal may be on the verge of a historic political turnaround, with the BJP predicted to emerge as the leading force. Several exit polls suggest that the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, could lose power after nearly 15 years in office. Political observers attribute the expected shift to anti-incumbency sentiment, an aggressive campaign by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and heightened deployment of central security forces during polling.

Different surveys have projected varying seat tallies. While one survey predicts TMC could still remain the single-largest party with around 187 seats, another major poll indicates BJP may secure between 150 and 175 seats, pushing TMC into the 118–138 range. The possibility of smaller parties and independents gaining key seats has also been highlighted.

In Assam, most exit polls predict that the BJP will retain power comfortably, with projections placing the party between 88 and 100 seats. The Congress is expected to trail behind with 24 to 36 seats, while other parties and independents may share the remaining constituencies.

Kerala is likely to witness a significant change, with exit polls forecasting that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) could return to power. Surveys indicate the ruling alliance may lose its grip, setting the stage for a closely watched transition. In Tamil Nadu, exit polls suggest a clear victory for the DMK-led alliance, which is expected to return to power with a strong mandate, defeating the opposition by a wide margin.

Puducherry is also projected to remain under the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), according to multiple survey estimates. The final results, however, will depend on counting day trends, as exit poll projections have historically shown variations from actual outcomes.

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