IMD Forecast Signals Below-Normal Monsoon as El Niño Likely to Dominate 2026 Season

IMD has released its first forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, indicating that rainfall across India is likely to remain below normal this year.

April 14, 2026 | Pune: The forecast suggests that monsoon rainfall could be 6 to 10 percent lower than the seasonal average. Maharashtra is also expected to witness below-normal rainfall, estimated at 92 to 95 percent of its long-period average. Officials noted that while the monsoon in 2025 was above average, this year’s pattern indicates a shift towards weaker rainfall activity. The India Meteorological Department stated that El Niño conditions, known for suppressing monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent, are expected to become active during the peak monsoon period from June to September. This development could significantly influence rainfall distribution across the country.

According to IMD Director General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, oceanic conditions in the equatorial Pacific are currently transitioning from a weak La Niña-like state to neutral conditions. However, atmospheric patterns are likely to shift towards El Niño conditions as the monsoon season progresses, potentially impacting rainfall intensity. The report also highlights that snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere between January and March 2026 was slightly below normal. Experts say there is a historical inverse relationship between winter-spring snow cover in Eurasia and the subsequent monsoon performance in India, which further supports the below-normal forecast.

Region-wise projections indicate that areas such as Kashmir, Ladakh, and Northeast India may receive 95 to 98 percent of normal rainfall, while central and southern India, along with Maharashtra, are expected to receive 90 to 95 percent. States like Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar are also likely to experience subdued rainfall. Meteorologists emphasize that this is the first long-range forecast, and a more refined update will be issued by the end of May. Authorities have advised preparedness in water management and agricultural planning as monsoon variability may affect key sectors.

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