Skymet Forecasts 6% Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall in 2026, El Niño Impact Looms

India may receive below-average rainfall this monsoon, with Skymet predicting 94% of the long-period average due to El Niño conditions, raising concerns over uneven distribution and agricultural impact.

Kolhapur | April 8, 2026: India is likely to witness a below-normal monsoon this year, with private weather agency Skymet Weather forecasting a 6% deficit in seasonal rainfall. The early outlook attributes the expected shortfall to the influence of El Niño conditions, which are known to disrupt monsoon patterns.

According to the forecast, total rainfall between June and September is expected to be around 94% of the long-period average (LPA), estimated at approximately 817 mm. While this falls within the “below normal” category, the agency has indicated a margin of error of ±5%, suggesting that actual rainfall could vary depending on evolving climatic conditions.

The report highlights that there is a 40% probability of below-normal rainfall and about a 30% chance of drought-like conditions developing in parts of the country. Such projections have raised concerns among policymakers and the agricultural sector, given the monsoon’s critical role in India’s economy.

Month-wise projections indicate that June rainfall may remain near normal at around 101% of LPA, providing a relatively stable start to the season. However, rainfall is expected to weaken as the season progresses. July rainfall is projected to drop slightly to around 95% of LPA, while August and September may witness sharper declines, with rainfall estimated at 92% and 89% of LPA respectively.

Meteorologists note that El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean often weaken the Indian monsoon by affecting atmospheric circulation and moisture transport. This can lead to uneven rainfall distribution, with some regions experiencing deficits while others may still receive normal or above-normal showers.

The forecast comes at a time when nearly 45 days remain before the expected onset of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. As such, experts have cautioned that this is a preliminary outlook and may be revised as more data becomes available in the coming weeks.

Despite the projected shortfall, analysts suggest that a 6% deficit may not significantly impact the overall economy if rainfall distribution remains relatively balanced. However, any further decline or erratic rainfall patterns could adversely affect agricultural output, particularly in rain-fed regions.

The situation is further compounded by global economic uncertainties, including ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting energy markets. A weaker monsoon, combined with external pressures, could increase inflationary risks, especially in food prices.

The India Meteorological Department had also indicated the possibility of variable weather patterns in April, pointing to increasing climatic fluctuations. Experts stress that adaptive agricultural planning and efficient water management will be crucial in mitigating potential risks.

As the country prepares for the monsoon season, stakeholders across sectors will be closely monitoring updates to the forecast, given its far-reaching implications for agriculture, water resources, and the broader economy.

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